The pendulum swings

2024-07-23

A rise in support for far-right political parties in some European states has given rise to concern that a long period of relative moderation in the politics of the continent, since the Second World War and the dictatorships of the mid-20th century, may be coming to an end.

There are two reasons why such fears are overstated, at least for now. Such movements are less aggressive than in the era of dictatorships, and the trend is not all one way. 

While the rhetoric of many populist right-wing leaders in Europe is strong, comparison with Mussolini, Franco and Hitler in the 1930s is inaccurate. Those leaders installed exceptionally cruel, oppressive dictatorships. The modern European right-wing leaders have – so far, at least – operated within the constitution and the rule of law. They don’t encourage toleration of minorities or dissidents, but they don’t massacre them.

Giorgia Meloni, head of the Brothers of Italy party, which has a fascist movement as one of its predecessor organization, has governed largely as a conventional centre-right leader since she became Prime Minister in 2023. Jordan Bardella, head of a similar party in France, the Rassemblement National (RN), trimmed some policies when it appeared that he was en route to becoming Prime Minister in the elections on 30 June and 7 July. As it turned out on 7 July, the tactic of the centre and left-wing parties of selectively dropping their candidates, and tactical voting by their supporters, prevented the RN from winning. The result was a hung parliament with left, right and centre on a roughly equal number of seats.

There was a similar pattern in the UK election on 4 July, where tactical voting supported Labour and the Liberal Democrats, limiting the representation of the Conservative Party and the right-wing Reform party. Labour won with a landslide majority.

Nonetheless, the experience of discrimination for minorities from right-wing attitudes in Europe can still be harsh. The secular policies of France discourage the wearing of traditional Muslim attire, for example, and representatives of RN are openly anti-Muslim. A significant number of educated French Muslims have emigrated to the United Kingdom or the Middle East, according to a recent book France: Loving It But Leaving It, by researchers Olivier Esteves, Alice Picard and Julien Talpin.

The geopolitical picture is that relatively prosperous, democratic countries have been attracting immigrants – both those fleeing war or persecution, and economic migrants. Nations with falling birthrates may welcome controlled immigration, but there can be a backlash from indigenous populations who are either xenophobic, or fear pressure on housing, services and jobs from an increasing population. 

But while the far-right like to seize on fears over immigration, the issue is typically not the main concern of most voters. Some of the right-wing parties have expressed opposition to supporting Ukraine’s resistance to Russian forces, but this is not a popular opinion in western Europe, where sympathy for Ukraine is strong.

While the right has been gaining in France and Germany, it has been falling back elsewhere. In the UK, it reached its high points with the vote for Brexit in 2016, and the election of the Conservatives in 2019, having purged moderate pro-EU ministers, with the promise to ‘get Brexit done’. In 2024 Labour won on a centrist platform and the three centre-left parties (Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens) between them polled 53% of the vote.

In Poland, the centrist Donald Tusk returned to power last December, ending eight years of rule by the right-wing Law and Justice Party. And in Sweden and the Netherlands, support for the right-wing parties fell back in the European elections. In the EU parliament, there are enough votes from the centre-right, centre-left and left to keep the moderate Ursula von der Leyen as European Commission President.

Of course, the dominant right-wing populist in Western politics is Donald Trump, who may well return as US President after the election at the end of the year. He is unpredictable. If he does win, he will likely seek retribution against internal political enemies, be protectionist in trade policy, and seek a compromise peace deal between Ukraine and Russia while reducing US contributions to NATO. Beyond that, it is difficult to anticipate his presidency. Assuming the US Constitution, and its institutions, remain intact, his tenure will be just four more turbulent years, at the end of which the political pendulum may swing back to the Democrats.

Western politics has become more febrile in recent years, but talk of its disintegration amid competing populist forces has been an overstatement so far. The centre is holding – for now.